Yet Another COVID-19 SEIR Model
(with overlay on reported statistics)
Note: this page is no longer being updated with recent COVID statistics. The source for state data does not include updates after March 2021. The COVID epidemic has grown in complexity far beyond what a simple SEIR model could predict, with multiple variants, changing protection policies, re-infections, immunizations, and boosters all resulting in a complex evolution of the disease and it's effects. Nevertheless, this page showing data through early March 2021 can still provide the user with a simplified intuition for the differential equations that describe the dynamics of disease evolution.
Reported COVID-19 Statistics
Location
Population:
Date:
Deaths:
Confirmed Cases:
  Plot Daily Change instead of Cumulative
  Overlay SEIR Model
Deaths
Confirmed Cases
SEIR Model Parameters   (hover over label for detail)


SEIR Model Plot


Description

This page presents reported COVID-19 diagnoses and related deaths by country and US state. The data can be manually fit to a standard SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Removed) model.

The SEIR model describes the evolution of COVID-19 within a population. A key parameter of the model is the reproduction number, \(R_0\), the average number of persons who contract the virus from a single infectous person given a fully susceptible population.

The model allows the user to set \(R_0\) over three discrete time periods:

  • Initial: \(R_0\) before pandemic is recognized and society responds
  • Intervention: Period of "social distancing". The pandemic is recognized, and the public reacts to reduce potentially infectious interactions.
  • New Normal: Social distancing policies are relaxed, but new norms of behaviour reduce \(R_0\) relative to the pre-pandemic period
The model changes \(R_0\) instantaneously at boundary of each time period.



The SEIR model categorizes a population according to the following:

The model includes the following tunable paramaters:

The model evolves according to the following set of differential equations:



Notes